There is trouble for Republicans in Texas — in November and beyond.
Joe Biden has opened up a western front in the 2020 campaign, buying advertising in Texas, where some polls have him leading Trump and others have him within a few points of the president. The current range is from Trump +2 to Biden +5.
Texas has been a tease for Democrats in presidential elections since it went Republican in the 1990s. (The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, but the state remained heavily Democratic throughout the 1980s and into the 1990s.) Democratic strategists warn donors and activists against the siren call of the Lone Star State’s 38 electoral votes, a prize exceeded only by California’s 55 currently safely Democratic electoral votes — Texas, they insist, will always sucker-punch Democrats.
And it may again in November.
But Republicans — and not only the Trump campaign — have reasons to worry about it. And it is worth keeping in mind that Trump won Texas with only 52 percent of the vote in 2016. Compare that with the 65 percent of the vote he won in Oklahoma — or with the 62 percent of the vote Hillary Rodham Clinton won in California in that election. That’s what a lock looks like. A 52-percent win represents a margin that can be squandered.
The immediate problem for Republicans in Texas is the coronavirus epidemic and Texans’ — and Americans’ — dissatisfaction with the government’s response to it at both the federal level, where the buck is supposed to stop with President Trump, and at the state level, which in Texas means governor Greg Abbott. Notably, Biden’s first ad in Texas does not even mention Donald Trump — Biden mentions himself in only one sentence. Instead, Biden offers a little bit of hectoring about social distancing and a great deal of boilerplate encouragement. It is difficult to credit Biden’s sincerity in even this, because it is difficult to credit Biden’s sincerity in anything, but he is running the kind of ad he would be running if he were already president.
-- excerpt, rest at link above --
“We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent people.” ― George Orwell
Quote: Right_in_Virginia wrote in post #2Every single effing election Texas is turning blue.
Can a Texan in our neighborhood let me know if I need to put this on the worry list?
Sure, some worry is called for - the stakes are enormous and the environment is so unsettled right now, anything COULD happen.
As for what will probably happen - Trump will win Texas, but not by a big margin.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:56 am (Last edited: Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:57 am)
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