For All the Marbles: GOP House Runoff Table Set With Phelan at the Center
Twenty total runoffs for state legislative seats are on the ballot in both parties.

Brad Johnson | Mar 25, 2024

https://thetexan.news/elections/2024/for-all-the-marbles-gop-house-runoff-table-set-with-phelan-at-the-center/article_84e67d12-e895-11ee-99fd-0b0b334a0f8c.html

A grueling primary now in the rearview mirror, Texas’ political sights turn to the high-stakes Russian roulette of runoffs that await at the end of May.

Thirteen GOP runoffs for state legislative seats are on the ballot for a second round of electoral combat, the most significant of which is Speaker Dade Phelan’s (R-Beaumont) fight against challenger David Covey — with not only Phelan’s speakership on the line, but his term in office as well.

The first round in House District (HD) 21 was a heavyweight clash between the pair, in which the incumbent finished 3 points behind the challenger, both still a ways from clearing 50 percent.

If they weren’t before, the knives are out now on each side in this runoff, both playing for keeps.

Responding to Covey’s jab last week that Phelan did not vote for Senate Bill (SB) 4 — the law creating a criminal penalty for illegal entry into Texas, subject of a whiplash-inducing court battle — the speaker shared a lengthy and pointed social media post, naming his opponent six times at once in a fashion he’s seldom done previously.

Earlier on Tuesday, Phelan held nothing back when asked about Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s fervent desire to oust him, saying, “100 percent, [he wants to pick his own speaker]. He came down [to HD 21 on election night] thinking I was going to lose the primary.”

“He didn’t fly down for a runoff announcement. He flew down for a victory party, and he was incorrect. He is not satisfied with being lieutenant governor anymore. He wants to be speaker of the Texas House. And no one in the Texas House wants the lieutenant governor to be the speaker.”

Patrick countered, objecting to that contention and turning criticism back on Phelan over SB 4. Phelan did not vote for SB 4 — and rarely votes on any legislation — but has reserved his vote for significant moments, such as the property tax deal and the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton.

When asked whether he’s disappointed that Gov. Greg Abbott — who’s remained mum and deferential on the race — hasn’t backed him, Phelan turned the rhetorical arrows back on Patrick, saying, “There's the ‘Big Three,’ and we stay out of each other's races. That's been the tradition here in Texas.”

“Of course, the lieutenant governor decided not to follow that tradition — he crossed that Rubicon. And that's his issue going forward with the Texas House. The tradition is [the Big Three] stay in their lanes.”

Millions of dollars were poured into the district in the first go-around, with millions more sure to follow. The Phelan camp also brought in Rob Johnson, a longtime consultant and advisor for former Gov. Rick Perry, as the new general consultant for the runoff. Whether that results in a change in general strategy — i.e., a focus on a ground game over the television and radio ad onslaught from the primary — or on messaging remains to be seen.

But the fact that Phelan is now publicly and forcefully hitting Covey by name, and doing it himself rather than through surrogates, shows the speaker knows the situation is tenuous — a fact made obvious by the primary result.

Covey’s strategy, meanwhile, is likely to remain similar: sticking with the horse that brought him and pulling over the voters who backed third-place finisher Alicia Davis, chiefly in Jasper County. He did gain some ammunition against Phelan with state Rep. Tom Oliverson (R-Cypress) announcing that he’s running for House speaker.

“The people of Southeast Texas deserve to know that they are being deceived. Dade Phelan claims they should vote for him because of his power as the Speaker, but the reality is — he will not return as Speaker of the House,” Covey said following Oliverson’s announcement.

A case made by Phelan for his re-election, and one seconded by former Gov. Rick Perry, is that Phelan’s speakership brings a tremendous amount of influence to his corner of Southeast Texas; something incontrovertibly true, provided he maintains the speakership.

Unless the electorate changes drastically from primary to runoff, that itself will get Covey across the finish line. But it’s no given. Nobody really knows who is going to turn out, particularly with the runoff being the day after Memorial Day, a three-day weekend.

The outcome of the headliner is as good as anyone’s guess at the moment, but one thing is guaranteed: HD 21 voters will be inundated with ads, mailpieces, and door-knockers for the next two months.

While Phelan versus Covey is the headliner, there are plenty of other notable clashes to watch in the May runoffs. There are four school choice-focused races in HD 1, state Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston) against Chris Spencer; HD 33, state Rep. Justin Holland (R-Rockwall) against Katrina Pierson; HD 44, state Rep. John Kuempel (R-Seguin) against Alan Schoolcraft; and HD 58, state Rep. DeWayne Burns (R-Cleburne) against Helen Kerwin.

Each of the incumbents voted to strip education savings accounts from the November omnibus proposal, the last of the remaining group of 16 returning House Republicans who broke with the governor on school choice — six of whom lost outright on March 5.

Through Abbott and a few pro-school choice PACs, millions of dollars were pumped into these House races during the primary, intended to flip enough seats for the issue to reach a 76-seat majority in the lower chamber.

At the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s (TPPF) 2024 Policy Summit on Wednesday, Abbott touted the momentum behind the issue heading into the next session.


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Quote: Wingnut wrote in post #4

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What is the hook that POS has? I mean the guy is the Mike Madigan of TX. A corrupt, bribe taking, liberal sonofbitch.

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