I just received this from my friend who works for the National Weather Service in Houston. Plan accordingly.
QuoteYou've probably heard the TV forecasters talking about an Arctic outbreak that will be heading our way and some additional details are becoming available in the various forecast models.
Currently, most of the models have the cold front reaching southeast Texas by late Sunday/early Monday and open the door for an Arctic airmass to spill southward. The 0000Z European ECMWF model has our temperature locally falling to the 29-30 degree range by Sunday afternoon and is forecasting lows of 21-23 Monday, 11-12 Tuesday, and 24-25 Wednesday before southerly winds and a rapid warmup begin. The ECMWF also wants to bring some freezing precipitation through late on Monday.
The 0000Z Canadian GEM is a little slower with frontal arrival but also somewhat colder. It is forecasting a Sunday afternoon low in the 50s but has temperatures bottoming out in the 18-21 range Monday and to a bone chilling 8-9 Tuesday before rising to a balmy 10 or so Wednesday. The GEM's warmup doesn't really kick in until Thursday. The GEM is also forecasting some freezing precip getting close but has it further to our east.
The 12Z American GFS is still running but its 0000Z output, while still showing very cold temperatures and a hard freeze n the Monday-Wednesday period, was marginally warmer than the ECMWF and GEM. The 0000Z GFS wasn't forecasting any frozen precip for our area and realistically it is still too early to take a definitive position.
At this point in time, the safest forecast is to say we are looking at a hard freeze next week and preparations need to be made before the cold air gets here.
This morning's graphic from the HGX forecast office is included below.
A cold front is set to hit Texas on Monday, and with it comes the usual and understandable hand-wringing about the power grid’s stability so commonplace since the 2021 blackouts.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday across the state, particularly during nighttime. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay at or below 40 degrees in much of the state with little precipitation in the forecast, though northern portions of the state could see some snow.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — the state’s main power grid operator — released a statement saying it “is closely monitoring the weather conditions moving across Texas this week.”
“Grid conditions are expected to be normal, and ERCOT expects to have sufficient supply to meet demand. Any outages are local in nature. Please contact your local electric provider for information if you are experiencing an outage.”
ERCOT’s six-day forecast estimates electricity demand to eclipse 78,000 megawatts (MW), well short of the 85,508 MW record hit on August 10 last year — though it’s significantly more than the expected peak load of around 70,000 MW in the operator’s January expectations.
At the time of that estimated peak, ERCOT expects to have over 92,000 MW of available capacity to meet the demand. Of that, over 80 percent is expected to be dispatchable power — everything except wind and solar generators.
Since 2021, every time a cold snap hits the state, Texans have flashbacks to the collapse that left much of the state without power for days on end. The intended rolling outages turned into prolonged blackouts because the severe cold and snow knocked out so many generators — a failure that spanned all resource types.
But after that, generators “weatherized” their facilities against temperatures as low as zero degrees. Since then no rotating outages have occurred, let alone any that reached the severity of 2021. In fact, only four times in ERCOT’s 50-year history have rotating outages been implemented, and three of the four have shed a very small amount of load for a small amount of time.-- excerpt, rest at link above --
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
A cold front is set to hit Texas on Monday, and with it comes the usual and understandable hand-wringing about the power grid’s stability so commonplace since the 2021 blackouts.
Sub-freezing temperatures are expected to arrive Monday and Tuesday across the state, particularly during nighttime. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay at or below 40 degrees in much of the state with little precipitation in the forecast, though northern portions of the state could see some snow.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — the state’s main power grid operator — released a statement saying it “is closely monitoring the weather conditions moving across Texas this week.”
“Grid conditions are expected to be normal, and ERCOT expects to have sufficient supply to meet demand. Any outages are local in nature. Please contact your local electric provider for information if you are experiencing an outage.”
ERCOT’s six-day forecast estimates electricity demand to eclipse 78,000 megawatts (MW), well short of the 85,508 MW record hit on August 10 last year — though it’s significantly more than the expected peak load of around 70,000 MW in the operator’s January expectations.
At the time of that estimated peak, ERCOT expects to have over 92,000 MW of available capacity to meet the demand. Of that, over 80 percent is expected to be dispatchable power — everything except wind and solar generators.
Since 2021, every time a cold snap hits the state, Texans have flashbacks to the collapse that left much of the state without power for days on end. The intended rolling outages turned into prolonged blackouts because the severe cold and snow knocked out so many generators — a failure that spanned all resource types.
But after that, generators “weatherized” their facilities against temperatures as low as zero degrees. Since then no rotating outages have occurred, let alone any that reached the severity of 2021. In fact, only four times in ERCOT’s 50-year history have rotating outages been implemented, and three of the four have shed a very small amount of load for a small amount of time.-- excerpt, rest at link above --
As long as solar and wind are in any way responsible for satisfying our baseline load for the grid, it cannot be prepared.
History shows these will fail, and fail miserably, when needed.
It is reasonable to concur where Conscience does not forbid a Compliance; for Conformity is at least a Civil Virtue. But we should only press it in Necessaries, the rest may prove a Snare and Temptation to break Society. But above all, it is a Weakness in Religion and Government, where it is carried to Things of an Indifferent Nature, since besides that it makes Way for Scruples, Liberty is always the Price of it....William Penn
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
15 degrees and still a fair amount of white stuff on the ground. But, there's sunshine today!!
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
Quote: Sanguine wrote in post #815 degrees and still a fair amount of white stuff on the ground. But, there's sunshine today!!
Left home Sunday to the mercy of the weather as the Mrs has cancer treatment at MDA all week
Houston seems to have great weather compared to any further north as precipitation is scant and not sticking.
It is reasonable to concur where Conscience does not forbid a Compliance; for Conformity is at least a Civil Virtue. But we should only press it in Necessaries, the rest may prove a Snare and Temptation to break Society. But above all, it is a Weakness in Religion and Government, where it is carried to Things of an Indifferent Nature, since besides that it makes Way for Scruples, Liberty is always the Price of it....William Penn
Quote: Sanguine wrote in post #815 degrees and still a fair amount of white stuff on the ground. But, there's sunshine today!!
15 degrees here this morning as well but we have thus far been spared from most of the white stuff. Go about three miles East of me and there the white stuff is.
Quote: Sanguine wrote in post #815 degrees and still a fair amount of white stuff on the ground. But, there's sunshine today!!
Left home Sunday to the mercy of the weather as the Mrs has cancer treatment at MDA all week
Houston seems to have great weather compared to any further north as precipitation is scant and not sticking.
Did all go well with the treatments? Back home now?
@Isailedaway
Oncologist says scans are oll ok.
God is goood!!
It is reasonable to concur where Conscience does not forbid a Compliance; for Conformity is at least a Civil Virtue. But we should only press it in Necessaries, the rest may prove a Snare and Temptation to break Society. But above all, it is a Weakness in Religion and Government, where it is carried to Things of an Indifferent Nature, since besides that it makes Way for Scruples, Liberty is always the Price of it....William Penn
Quote: Sanguine wrote in post #815 degrees and still a fair amount of white stuff on the ground. But, there's sunshine today!!
Left home Sunday to the mercy of the weather as the Mrs has cancer treatment at MDA all week
Houston seems to have great weather compared to any further north as precipitation is scant and not sticking.
Did all go well with the treatments? Back home now?
@Isailedaway
Oncologist says scans are oll ok.
God is goood!!
That's wonderful! God IS good.
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
Unfrozen Cave Water Cooler
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The Unfrozen Cave
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Tue Jan 09, 2024 3:03 pm (Last edited: Wed Jan 10, 2024 9:44 am)
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