Candidates Who Can’t Win Almost Never Realize It until It’s Too Late
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ca...l-its-too-late/
By Jim Geraghty
March 4, 2023 11:57 AM


Henry Olsen is correct when, in contemplating the 2024 Republican presidential primary, he writes:

An early large field does not automatically redound to Trump’s benefit. Too few delegates are at stake in the early races for him to build a lead with plurality victories. But it is crucial that candidates with no chance of winning drop out before Super Tuesday. That’s why Democratic candidates in 2020, such as Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, abandoned their campaigns and endorsed Joe Biden within hours of Biden’s thumping South Carolina win in 2020.

The problem is, scientists and astrophysicists are still searching the galaxy for any force that has more gravitational pull than a presidential candidate’s ego. (Alternate version of that joke: They’re still searching for any celestial object that is more dense than the judgment of a presidential candidate who has no chance.)

The traditional schedule of the GOP presidential primary means that candidates can effectively choose to compete in either Iowa or New Hampshire, and write off the other state. They also don’t have to win either state to convince themselves that they’re still viable; they just need to “beat expectations,” which is a bar that can be lowered pretty easily.

Blame Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign for managing to spin a 24 percent to 33 percent defeat to Paul Tsongas into a win, and strengthening the perception that how a candidate finishes compared to earlier polling is the real “win.” As the Clinton crew described it, years later:

Ricia McMahon, Clinton’s New Hampshire co-chair

We knew Tsongas was going to win, but we also knew that it was going to be within that magic 10 points or nine points or whatever. So Joe Grandmaison, the former state party chairman, said we should go on early and claim victory. Like at 8 p.m. Which was kind of unheard-of.

Paul Begala, Clinton’s senior strategist

Back in 1972, the press declared George McGovern the de facto winner of New Hampshire because he’d held Ed Muskie of neighboring Maine below 50 percent. Well, we’d held neighboring senator Paul Tsongas below 35 — he got 33 percent — while we’d exceeded our own poll, which projected single digits, garnering 25 percent.

Dee Dee Myers, Clinton’s campaign press secretary

There was some conversation about whether to acknowledge Tsongas or just declare victory. We landed on just declaring victory. Hillary had no love for Tsongas. No one did. And since a winner hadn’t officially been declared, our view was, let’s set the story narrative now — the Comeback Kid — and we can call Tsongas later once he’s the winner.

A candidate who wants to see reasons to stay in the race will always be able to find signs to stay in the race. We were up two percentage points in that last poll! We’re attracting really big crowds! People really loved that debate performance! We’ve got big momentum, just look at how people respond when we shake hands in a diner! Candidates can always convince themselves that the next upcoming contest is when they’re really going to surprise the doubters, and that the imminent victory will “catapult” them to the top tier.-- excerpt, rest at link above --